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greenbets quantos saques por dia - Escolha uma boa máquina caça-níqueis

Probability The probability of winning with each bet

Here are a bunch of charts and tables for different probabilities in both 🫰 European and American roulette.

There's also some handy (but not necessarily easy) information at the bottom about working out roulette probabilities, 🫰 plus a little bit on the gambler's fallacy.

1. European roulette

Probability of each bet type winning on a European roulette wheel.

Bet 🫰 Type Fraction Ratio Percentage Even (e.g. Red/Black) 1/2.06 1.06 to 1 48.6% Column 1/3.08 2.08 to 1 32.4% Dozen 1/3.08 🫰 2.08 to 1 32.4% Six Line 1/6.17 5.17 to 1 16.2% Corner 1/9.25 8.25 to 1 10.8% Street 1/12.33 11.33 🫰 to 1 8.1% Split 1/19.50 18.50 to 1 5.4% Straight 1/37.00 36.00 to 1 2.7%

A simple bar chart to highlight 🫰 the percentage probabilities of the different bet types in roulette coming in.

The same color in a row

How unlikely is it 🫰 to see the same color 2 or more times in a row? What's the probability of the results of 5 🫰 spins of the roulette wheel being red? The following chart highlights the probabilities of the same color appearing over a 🫰 certain number of spins of the roulette wheel.

A graph to show the probability of seeing the same color of red/black 🫰 (or any evens bet result for that matter) over multiple spins.

Number of Spins Ratio Percentage 1 1.06 to 1 48.6% 🫰 2 3.23 to 1 23.7% 3 7.69 to 1 11.5% 4 16.9 to 1 5.60% 5 35.7 to 1 2.73% 🫰 6 74.4 to 1 1.33% 7 154 to 1 0.65% 8 318 to 1 0.31% 9 654 to 1 0.15% 🫰 10 1,346 to 1 0.074% 15 49,423 to 1 0.0020% 20 1,813,778 to 1 0.000055%

Example: The probability of the same 🫰 color showing up 4 times in a row is 5.60% .

As the graph shows, the probability of seeing the same 🫰 color on consecutive spins of the roulette wheel more than halves (well, the ratio probability doubles) from one spin to 🫰 the next.

I stopped the graph at 6 trials/spins, as that was enough to highlight the trend and produce a prettier 🫰 probability graph.

Other probabilities

Event Ratio Percentage The same number (e.g. 32 ) over 2 spins. 1,368 to 1 0.073% The result 🫰 being 0 . 36 to 1 2.7% The 0 appearing at least once over 10 spins. 2.7 to 1 27.0% 🫰 The same color over 2 spins. 3.23 to 1 23.7% Guessing color and even/odd correctly. 3.11 to 1 24.3% Guessing 🫰 color and dozen correctly. 5.16 to 1 16.2% Guessing dozen and column correctly. 8.25 to 1 10.8%

Rank Casino Rating Payment 🫰 Methods Payout Time Links No casinos available :(

2. American roulette

Here are a few useful probabilities for American roulette.

Alongside the charts, 🫰 I've included graphs that compare the American roulette probabilities to those of the European roulette probabilities. The difference in odds 🫰 and probability for these two variants is explained in the American vs. European probability section below.

Probability of each bet type 🫰 winning on an American roulette wheel.

Bet Type Fraction Ratio Percentage Even (e.g. Red/Black) 1/2.11 1.11 to 1 47.4% Column 1/3.16 🫰 2.16 to 1 31.6% Dozen 1/3.16 2.16 to 1 31.6% Six Line 1/6.33 5.33 to 1 15.8% Corner 1/9.50 8.50 🫰 to 1 10.5% Street 1/12.67 11.67 to 1 7.9% Split 1/19.00 18.00 to 1 5.3% Straight 1/38.00 37.00 to 1 🫰 2.6%

A simple bar chart to highlight the percentage probabilities of winning with the different bet types in American and European 🫰 roulette.

The same color in a row

When playing on an American roulette wheel, what's the probability of seeing the same color 🫰 appear X times in a row? The table below lists both the ratio and percentage probability over successive numbers of 🫰 spins.

A graph to show the probability of seeing the same color of red/black on an American roulette table (compared to 🫰 the odds on a European table).

Number of Spins Ratio Percentage 1 1.11 to 1 47.4% 2 3.45 to 1 22.4% 🫰 3 8.41 to 1 10.6% 4 18.9 to 1 5.04% 5 40.9 to 1 2.39% 6 87.5 to 1 1.13% 🫰 7 186 to 1 0.54% 8 394 to 1 0.25% 9 832 to 1 0.12% 10 1,757 to 1 0.057% 🫰 15 73,732 to 1 0.0014% 20 3,091,873 to 1 0.000032%

Example: The probability of the same color showing up 6 times 🫰 in a row on an American roulette wheel is 1.13% .

The probability of seeing the same color appear on successive 🫰 spins just over halves from one spin to the next.

You'll also notice that it's less likely to see the same 🫰 color appear on multiple spins in a row on an American roulette wheel than it is on a European wheel. 🫰 This is not because the American wheel is "fairer" and dishes out red/black colors more evenly — it's because there 🫰 is an additional green number (the double zero - 00) that increases the likelihood of disrupting the flow of successive 🫰 same-color spins.

Other probabilities

Event Ratio Percentage The same number (e.g. 32 ) over 2 spins. 1,444 to 1 0.069% The result 🫰 being 0 or 00 . 18 to 1 5.26% The 0 or 00 appearing at least once over 10 spins. 🫰 0.9 to 1 52.6% The same color over 2 spins. 3.45 to 1 22.4% Guessing color and even/odd correctly. 3.22 🫰 to 1 23.7% Guessing color and dozen correctly. 5.33 to 1 15.8% Guessing dozen and column correctly. 8.5 to 1 🫰 10.5%

3. Why is there a difference between European and American roulette?

The probabilities in American and European roulette are different because 🫰 American roulette has an extra green number (the double zero - 00), whereas European roulette does not.

Therefore, the presence of 🫰 this additional green number ever so slightly decreases the probability of hitting other specific numbers or sets of numbers, whether 🫰 it be over one spin or over multiple spins.

To give a simplified example, lets say I have a bag with 🫰 1 red, 1 black and 1 green ball in it. If I ask you to pick out one ball at 🫰 random, the probability of choosing a red ball would be 1 in 3.

Now, if I added another green ball so 🫰 that there are now 2 green balls in the bag, the probability of picking out a red ball has dropped 🫰 to 1 in 4.

This exact same idea applies to all the probabilities in American roulette (thanks to that extra 00 🫰 number), just on a slightly bigger scale.

Fact: This difference in the probabilities also has a knock-on effect for the house 🫰 edge too. So essentially, in American roulette you have a slightly worse chance of winning, but the payouts remain the 🫰 same.

Note: You can find out more about the differences between these two games in my article American vs European roulette.

4. 🫰 Mathematics

a. Formats

There are a number of ways to display probabilities. On the roulette charts above I have used; ratio odds, 🫰 percentage odds and sometimes fractional odds. But what do they mean?

Percentage odds (%) This is easy. This tells you the 🫰 percentage of the time an event occurs. Ratio odds (X to 1) For every time X happens, the event will 🫰 occur 1 time.

Example: The ratio odds of a specific number appearing are 36 to 1, which means that for every 🫰 36 times the number doesn't appear, it will appear 1 time. Fractional odds (1/X) The event occurs 1 time out 🫰 of X amount of trials.

Example: The fractional odds of a specific number appearing are 1/37, which means that it will 🫰 happen 1 time out of 37 spins.

As you can see, fractional odds and ratio odds are pretty similar. The main 🫰 difference is that fractional odds uses the total number of spins, whereas the ratio just splits it up in to 🫰 two parts.

The majority of people are most comfortable using percentage odds, as they're the most widely understood. Feel free to 🫰 use whatever makes the most sense to you though of course. They all point to the same thing at the 🫰 end of the day.

b. Calculating

From my experience, the easiest way to work out probabilities in roulette is to look at 🫰 the fraction of numbers for your desired probability, then convert to a percentage or ratio from there.

For example, lets say 🫰 you want to know the probability of the result being red on a European wheel. Well, there are 18 red 🫰 numbers and 37 numbers in total, so the fractional probability is 18/37. Simple.

With this easy-to-get fractional probability, you can then 🫰 convert it to a ratio or percentage.

Single spin

Calculation: Count the amount of numbers that give you the result you want 🫰 to find the probability for, then put that number over 37 (the total number of possible results).

For example, the probability 🫰 of:

Red = 18/37 (there are 18 red numbers)

Even = 18/37 (there are 18 even numbers)

Dozen = 12/37 (there are 12 🫰 numbers in a dozen bet)

8 Black = 1/37 (there is only one number 8 )

) Red and Odd = 9/37 🫰 (there are 9 numbers that are both red and odd)

Dozen and Column = 4/37 (there are only 4 numbers in 🫰 the same dozen and column)

As well as working out the probability of winning on each spin, you can also find 🫰 the likelihood of losing on each spin. All you have to do is count the numbers that will result in 🫰 a loss. For example, the probability of losing if you bet on red is 19/37 (18 black numbers + 1 🫰 green number).

Note: To reduce a fraction down to 1/X, just divide each side by the number on the left. e.g. 🫰 a bet on red has the probability of 18/37, divide each side by 18 and you've got 1/2.05.

Multiple spins

Calculation: Work 🫰 out the fractional probability for each individual spin (as above), then multiply those fractions together.

For example, let's say you want 🫰 to find the probability of making correct guesses on specific bet types over multiple spins:

Spin 1: Red = 18/37

Spin 2: 🫰 Dozen bet = 12/37

Probability = (18/37) x (12/37) = 1/6.34

Spin 1: Straight Bet (e.g. 32 ) = 1/37

) = 1/37 🫰 Spin 2: Straight Bet (e.g. 15 ) = 1/37

) = 1/37 Probability = (1/37) x (1/37) = 1/1369

Spin 1: Black 🫰 and Even = 9/37

Spin 2: Odd = 18/37

Spin 3: Column = 12/37

Probability = (9/37) x (18/37) x (12/37) = 1/26.06

To 🫰 keep it simple, I reduced the all fractions for the results above down to the 1/X format.

c. Converting

Having probabilities in 🫰 a fraction format like 18/37 or 1/2.05 is okay, but sometimes it's more useful to see the probability as a 🫰 percentage or a ratio. Luckily, it's pretty easy to convert to either of these from a fraction.

Fraction to ratio

Conversion: Reduce 🫰 the fraction to the 1/X format, then take 1 away from X. This will give you the X to 1 🫰 ratio.

For example, what is a dozen bet (12/37) as a ratio?

Reduce the fraction to 1/X. 12/37 = 1/3.08 (you divide 🫰 both sides by the left-hand side number, which in this example is 12 ) Take 1 away from X. 3.08 🫰 - 1 = 2.08 Ratio = 2.08 to 1

Fraction to percentage

Conversion: Divide the left side by the right side, then 🫰 multiply by 100.

For example, what is a corner bet (4/37) as a percentage?

Divide the left side by the right side. 🫰 4 ÷ 37 = 0.1081 Multiply by 100. 0.1081 x 100 = 10.81% Percentage = 10.81%

5. Important fact about probability

The 🫰 result of the next spin is never influenced by the result of previous spins.

A quick example

The probability of the result 🫰 being red on one spin of the wheel is 48.6%. That's easy enough.

Now, what if I told you that over 🫰 the last 10 spins, the result had been black each time. What do you think the probability of the result 🫰 being red on the next spin would be? Higher than 48.6%?

Wrong. The probability would be exactly 48.6% again.

Why?

The roulette wheel 🫰 doesn't think "I've only delivered black results over the last 10 spins, I better increase the probability of the next 🫰 result being red to even things up". Unfortunately, roulette wheels are not that thoughtful.

If you had just sat down at 🫰 the roulette table and didn't know that the last 10 spins were black, you wouldn't have a hard time agreeing 🫰 that the probability of seeing a red on the next spin is 48.6%. Yet if you are aware of recent 🫰 results, you're tempted to let it affect your judgment.

Each and every result is independent of the last, so don't expect 🫰 the results of future spins to be affected by the results you've seen over previous spins. If you can learn 🫰 to appreciate this fact, you will save yourself from some disappointment (and frustration) in the future.

Believing that a certain result 🫰 is "due" because of past results is known as the gambler's fallacy.

What about those graphs above?

In the graph of the 🫰 probability of seeing the same color over multiple spins of the wheel, it shows that the probability of the result 🫰 being the same color halves from one spin to the next.

However, this is only if you're looking at the entire 🫰 set of trials/spins from the start.

If the last spin was red, the chances of the next spin being red are 🫰 still 48.6% — they do not drop to 23.7%. On the other hand, if you hadn't spun the wheel to 🫰 see the first red result and wanted to know the probability of seeing red over the next 2 spins (and 🫰 not just on the next 1 spin), the probability would be 23.7%.

Further reading

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